There’s a famous baseball quote. It gets trotted out a lot this time of year. It has never been more relevant than it is right now. “My job is to get us to the playoffs,” Oakland Athletics architect Billy Beane once said. “What happens after that is f*cking luck.”
Is that entirely true? Well, no. But there’s plenty of validity to it. And when Major League Baseball diluted the playoff field to 16 teams in 2020, the sport invited another layer of the variance that shapes the postseason. The better the team, the worse the consequences.
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Consider the Dodgers, baseball’s last Super Team. They played at a pace comparable to the ’27 Yankees. Their postseason opponent is the Brewers, who never spent a day over .500 this season. And still they snagged the eighth seed in the National League. They are a flawed team, no doubt. But they are in the tournament. And that is all that really matters.
“We’re in and we’ve got a chance to win the World Series, still,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. “The record is irrelevant.”
Any of these teams can take the big cake, as Fernando Tatis Jr. would say. And any of these teams could lose in the first round. Fortune will smile on some teams, and it will sneer at others. So here’s a look at how each of the 16 entrants might go all the way — and how each might get bounced before even getting to one of the four bubbles next week.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
1. Tampa Bay Rays (40-20)
Why they might win it all: elite depth, elite preparation
The Rays might be the only team in baseball that can challenge the Dodgers in terms of pound-for-pound excellence on the 40-man roster. The depth stretches for fathoms. The team has weathered injuries to players like Yandy Díaz, Ji-Man Choi, Austin Meadows, Jalen Beeks, Yonny Chirinos, Chaz Roe and Brendan McKay — all without missing a beat. The organization is renowned for its game-planning when it comes to lineup construction and defensive alignment. And the starting rotation is headlined by a pair of arms capable of overwhelming lineups, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow.
Why they might go home this week: Who is going to hit RHP?
Could this happen to any of the 16 entrants? Of course. Are the Rays more susceptible than other elite teams? Maybe — and certainly against right-handed pitching. The team’s two most productive hitters, Brandon Lowe and Willy Adames, have been far more effective against lefties in 2020. The team’s two breakout hitters, Mike Brosseau and Randy Arozarena, have also done more damage against lefties. The team lacks reliable left-handed-hitting power outside of Nate Lowe.
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2. Oakland Athletics (36-24)
Why they might win it all: the bullpen
Oakland’s relief corps finished the regular season with the lowest collective ERA in the game. Liam Hendriks has established himself as baseball’s most reliable closer. After blowing a save in his first appearance, he converted his next 14 opportunities. He gave up one run in August. There are sage reliables like Yusmeiro Petit and Joakim Soria building the bridge to the ninth, with Jake Diekman capable of wiping out batters from the left side. The Athletics will have to win some tight games, especially with star third baseman Matt Chapman out for the year. But they have the bullpen to do it.
Why they might go home this week: the starting rotation
It all looked so good on paper. When the Athletics convened in Arizona this February, their rotation featured a youthful armada featuring A.J. Puk, Jesús Luzardo, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, with Mike Fiers as the veteran leader. Then Puk injured his shoulder. Montas has been too prone to homers and walks. Manaea has fallen victim to some bad luck. Fiers has regressed. Luzardo looks like a 22-year-old still feeling his way through the majors. The team’s most effective starter has been Chris Bassitt, but the depth behind him is worrisome.
3. Minnesota Twins (36-24)
Why they might win it all: the former Dodger brigade
With their offense already well-stocked with power, Minnesota found a pair of imports from Los Angeles to boost the rotation: Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill. Maeda was used as a reliever by the Dodgers in the playoffs from 2017 to 2019, but the Twins still felt he could improve as a starter. Working with pitching coach Wes Johnson, Maeda has become more effective against left-handed pitchers and has had an outstanding season. Hill is working his way back from an offseason elbow surgery and hasn’t struck out batters at his usual clip. But his postseason ERA as a Dodger was 2.70, and the Twins signed him in part so he could help them in October.
Why they might go home this week: Bad timing for injuries
So much of the postseason is about timing. The Twins experienced some bad luck over the weekend when Byron Buxton suffered a mild concussion and Josh Donaldson felt cramping in his hamstring. The team is optimistic both will be ready for Tuesday. But the maladies came at a time when the team’s offense is dinged and slumping. Nelson Cruz is nursing a sore knee. Miguel Sanó went cold in September. Jorge Polanco hasn’t hit for power all season. The Bomba Squad isn’t what is used to be, and they’ll need everything they can get from Donaldson.
4. Cleveland Indians (35-25)
Why they might win it all: the arms, the arms, the arms
Where to begin? Shane Bieber should win the American League Cy Young Award. Carlos Carrasco and Zach Plesac are a tremendous 2-3 punch lined up behind Bieber. The debut of Triston McKenzie made Mike Clevinger expendable — and the pitching staff is so deep that McKenzie can come out of the bullpen for at least the wild-card round. The relief corps is led by Brad Hand, one of the sport’s best closers, and James Karinchak, one of the sport’s new strikeout kings. Cleveland can pitch better than any team in the tournament.
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Why they might go home this week: the bats, the bats, the bats
Outside of José Ramírez clubbing home runs, how does Cleveland plan to score? Of all 16 playoff teams, the Indians rank last in OPS and weighted on-base average. Francisco Lindor finished the abbreviated season with the worst OPS of his career. Carlos Santana had the least-productive campaign of his 11-season career. Pretty much all of the team’s outfielders — Delino DeShields, Tyler Naquin, Josh Naylor, Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado — were below the league average in OPS+. Ramírez must carry a heavy load, and opponents can just pitch around him without much fear.
5. New York Yankees (33-27)
Why they might win it all: Judge and Stanton are back
In the middle of September, both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton returned from the injured list. Judge is one of the best hitters in the sport. Despite his playoff struggles in 2018 and 2019, Stanton is still fearsome at the plate. Their presence adds even more right-handed-hitting heft to a lineup that already features power from the right side courtesy of D.J. LeMahieu and Luke Voit. The duo makes the team’s batting order that much tougher to navigate, with the ability to go deep from top to bottom.
Why they might go home this week: Judge and Stanton are back, but at what level?
So Judge and Stanton will be in the lineup. But what do they have to offer? Injuries have limited Stanton to fewer than 50 regular-season games since 2018. After his return in September, he struck out in 16 of his first 35 at-bats. Opponents have demonstrated that he can be game-planned against in October. Judge is a more reliable contributor, but his readiness for the postseason tournament is unclear. He hit .206 in his first nine games back with only one extra-base hit. Outside of LeMahieu and Voit, the lineup looks less impressive than it did in 2019. The team needs Judge and Stanton to close that gap.
6. Houston Astros (29-31)
Why they might win it all: a championship pedigree … yes, we know
Look, we get it. In the wake of their sign-stealing scandal, the Astros won’t get the benefit of the doubt. And the team didn’t exactly tear the cover off the baseball in 2020. Even so, they do employ a roster loaded with players who have manufactured huge October moments in recent years. The circ*mstances behind those moments remain murky at best. But in Alex Bregman, George Springer, José Altuve and Carlos Correa, Houston has a battle-tested group. The Astros won’t be overwhelmed by the heightened stakes. It might not be much. But it is the best we can offer.
Why they might go home this week: They just aren’t that good
Gerrit Cole is gone. Justin Verlander is out for the year. So is Yordan Álvarez. Bregman was solid in 2020, but it was still his weakest season since his rookie debut in 2016. Heading into Sunday’s games, there were 121 players in the majors who received 200 plate appearances this season. Altuve ranked 118th in OPS (.607), Yuli Gurriel was 114th (.661), Carlos Correa was 104th (.681) and Josh Reddick was 101st (.701). The club is just not particularly good at much of anything this season. They barely held off the Mariners for second place in the American League. In any other campaign, Houston would be watching the playoffs from the couch.
7. Chicago White Sox (35-25)
Why they might win it all: Abreu and Anderson are superstars
José Abreu and Tim Anderson both belong on MVP ballots this autumn. Abreu led the American League in slugging and RBI. He experienced a renaissance at 33, making the three-year deal he signed this past winter look like a steal. Anderson continued to build off his star turn in 2019. He didn’t win a second consecutive batting title, but he improved his on-base percentage and his slugging percentage. He is a lively presence atop the lineup, the first man up for a group that made noise throughout the summer. The White Sox need both Abreu and Anderson to play like stars, and both have shown they can.
Why they might go home this week: Fading down the stretch
The White Sox picked a bad time to fall apart. OK, maybe that is a slight exaggeration. But they aren’t bursting through the tape at the regular season’s end. More like a face-plant. Chicago went on a six-game losing streak before prevailing over the Cubs on Saturday. Eloy Jiménez has an injured foot. Luis Robert has slumped in September. Yoán Moncada has not fully recovered from his bout with COVID-19. Yasmani Grandal is in the fallow period of his annual boom-and-bust cycle. Dylan Cease has a 5.64 ERA in September. Across 162 games, these sorts of stretches happen. It is unclear how the White Sox would have responded during a full season. They will just have to regroup in time for Tuesday.
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8. Toronto Blue Jays (32-28)
Why they might win it all: Youth must be served
The core of Toronto’s lineup is still so young. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won’t turn 22 until next March. Bo Bichette is 22. Cavan Biggio (25), Lourdes Gurriel (26) and Randal Grichuk (28) are the elder statesmen. Teoscar Hernández, the team’s breakout performer in 2020, is only 27. The group should have plenty of energy and exuberance on demand in these playoffs. They can run. They can slug. Biggio knows how to take a walk. They have not been here before. Maybe that’s a good thing? They certainly won’t be comparing this bizarre postseason to seasons past.
Why they might go home this week: Who starts Game 2? Actually, who starts Game 1?
The Blue Jays signed Hyun-Jin Ryu to lead their rotation. Ryu has done his part, with a 2.69 ERA in 12 starts. But he experienced some soreness after his outing on Friday, so Toronto is pondering giving him extra rest and using him in Game 2. Considering Ryu’s history of shoulder trouble, caution makes sense. The decision would vault Taijuan Walker into the Game 1 slot. Walker has been excellent in six starts for Toronto, but his brief postseason history is checkered. He got demolished in one inning by the Dodgers in 2017. Toronto cannot afford a repeat of that performance.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (43-17)
Why they might win it all: They’re the best team in baseball, by a lot
Entering the final day of the season, the Dodgers had outscored their opponents by 131 runs, the most in baseball. Let’s put that in perspective. If projected to 162 games, that would be a run differential of plus-360. Only two teams in the history of baseball have done better: Joe DiMaggio and the 1939 Yankees, and the Murderers’ Row Yankees of 1927. In any context, the Dodgers are a juggernaut. Adding Mookie Betts has helped soften the blow of Cody Bellinger’s down year. Every part of the roster is deep with talent. They’re loaded, and they’re hungry.
Why they might go home this week: Because baseball is messed up like that
They don’t hand out the Big Piece of Metal for winning the Run Differential World Series. Regular-season success guarantees nothing. Dodger fans don’t need the reminder. But for all the Dodgers’ depth, they’ll still be leaning on both Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen, and that carries some uncertainty. Kershaw is throwing harder than he did last year, but his postseason failures are well-documented. Meanwhile, Jansen’s evolution as a pitcher helped him find success to start the year, though some September hiccups offered a reminder that he’s capable of extreme outcomes.
2. Atlanta Braves (35-25)
Why they might win it all: They can rake
Oh yeah, the Dodgers are good. But the Braves were the team that led the NL in slugging (.485 before Sunday’s games), OPS (.835) and runs per game (5.88). They get offense from everywhere. Freddie Freeman had been one of the highest-profile players to suffer the symptoms of COVID-19. He might be the NL’s Most Valuable Player. The designated hitter in the National League made it easier to keep Marcell Ozuna in the lineup, and he responded with a 1.055 OPS. Ronald Acuña Jr. started slow, went to the injured list, and then spent much of September making up for lost time. He’s clicking when it counts, which makes the Braves very dangerous.
Why they might go home this week: They don’t have the arms
It’s remarkable that the Braves won the National League East given their mess of a starting rotation. All-star Mike Soroka went down with an Achilles injury after just three starts. Sean Newcomb and Mike Foltynewicz got their chances and faltered. The Cole Hamels signing resulted in exactly one start. Lefty Max Fried might be the single most important pitcher to any team. He was an NL Cy Young Award front-runner until he landed on the injured list. They need him to be all the way back. And they’ll need rookies Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright to stand up to the rigors of the playoffs. That’s a tough ask.
3. Chicago Cubs (34-26)
Why they might win it all: They get mad
Kris Bryant lashed out at all the criticism he’s received for his wretched season, emphasizing that he does not give a whit about the negativity. David Ross, the Cubs’ first year manager, called out idiots on Twitter. It’s nice to see this beleaguered group fire back. All season, the Cubs have annoyed opponents with the energy that they’ve brought to their dugout, a concern only because what’s being said can be heard in empty ballparks. They’ve been unapologetic. Perhaps the Cubs can harness that brashness at just the right time. It helps to have Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks anchoring the rotation. But the Cubs’ fate will hinge on getting the performances to match up with the names, something they haven’t been able to do since 2016.
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Why they might go home this week: They might not show up
Despite all that’s different about this bizarro season in a pandemic, the questions about the Cubs’ broken offense have lingered. They’ve endured underperformance from their biggest stars: Bryant, Javier Báez, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras. This has been the core of the team the last five years, a stretch that includes a World Series. Nothing’s been easy since that historic triumph. This may be the group’s last chance to win another title together. But their inability to maintain any semblance of consistency has been a red flag. They started 13-3 but finished just 21-23.
4. San Diego Padres (37-23)
Why they might win it all: The talent matches up with anyone
Fernando Tatis Jr. may have cost himself the NL MVP by cooling off in September. But he’s also shown recent signs of perking up entering the playoffs. If that proves to be an accurate sign, look out. It’s ridiculous to call Manny Machado an afterthought, especially in a season in which he’ll get MVP votes. But it speaks to the overall depth of talent that the Padres bring. The lineup boasts both power and speed. And if healthy, the pitching will be a handful for anyone. Few teams have played with more confidence.
Why they might go home this week: Whither Lamet and Clevinger
A week ago, the Padres seemed to have their choice of Game 1 starters. At the deadline, general manager A.J. Preller acquired Mike Clevinger for that specific purpose. Dinelson Lamet had pitched well enough for consideration as well. But in a tough final week for the Padres, both pitchers left their starts with injuries. Clevinger came down with an elbow ailment. Lamet felt biceps tightness. Lamet could still be an option for Game 1 and there’s optimism that Clevinger can pitch in the first round. But diminished versions of either pitcher would rob the Padres of the firepower they’ll need to make a run.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (30-28)
Why they might win it all: They’re tough
The lengthiest COVID-19 shutdown in baseball affected the Cardinals. The 17-day layoff prompted a grueling schedule of 23 games in 18 days. They became the kings of doubleheaders. To be able not to capsize after that many days without baseball is a credit to the team and manager Mike Shildt. As with many teams in the central, the lineup has struggled, though Paul Goldschmidt has been a force. Having the likes of Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim lined up to pitch in the wild-card round is a major advantage.
Why they might go home this week: They can’t hit
Entering the season’s final day, only Goldschmidt and Brad Miller produced offensive seasons above the league average, according to OPS+. Sure, playoff games tend to be lower scoring, and the Cardinals have the arms in both the bullpen and rotation to prevent runs. But other teams have arms, too. St. Louis lacks the power threats who can turn a tense playoff game — against quality pitching — with just one swing of the bat. It’s not the only way to win in October. Having that threat sure helps.
6. Miami Marlins (31-29)
Why they might win it all: Resilience (and pitching)
Baseball’s biggest COVID-19 outbreak shut down the Marlins for eight days. Quarantine brought anxiety and forced the team to fill 18 roster spots. They returned and won six straight. Every time they’ve been knocked down, they’ve gotten back up. The team got healthier, the trade deadline brought Starling Marté, and the emergence of Sixto Sánchez has put a face on the talented young pitching that the Marlins intend to turn into a sustainable winner. They’ve got big arms and they’re playing with house money, a dangerous combination.
Why they might go home this week: Not ready for prime time
The Marlins finished with a minus-41 run differential. In fairness, almost half of that comes from one game, a 29-9 thrashing against the Braves. Still, without that debacle, Miami was still outscored by a healthy margin. In this way, they’ve had some luck on their side. The pitching is young and volatile. Meanwhile, Marté got hit by a pitch in Sunday’s season finale; losing him would hurt an offense that finished 21st with 263 runs. A good story can only last for so long.
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7. Cincinnati Reds (31-29)
Why they might win it all: right place, right time
The Reds spent a bunch of money and acquired some more talent in the offseason. After losing on Sept. 1, they were 15-21 and one of the biggest disappointments in the sport. But they finished 16-8 to lock up a playoff spot. Finally, the names in the lineup (think Eugenio Suárez) have matched their pedigree. Of course, that hasn’t been a problem on the pitching side. It’s hard to top the trio of Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray atop the rotation. And if there’s a group that has a chance of shutting down the potent Braves, it’s this one. Bauer is a strikeout machine who should win the National League Cy Young Award. Castillo’s stuff matches up with the elite arms in the sport.
Why they might go home this week: They come back to earth
Most of the season was spent waiting to get hot, and the bounceback has been timely. But the Reds also have an offense that seems quite capable of shutting down just as quickly as it ramped up. Home runs have carried the day. Their 90 homers ranked seventh in baseball. But they only reached base at a .312 clip, good for just 24th. Their 76 doubles ranked 28th. Short-sequence offense is a good thing in October. But the Reds’ reliance on home runs seems amplified.
8. Milwaukee Brewers (29-31)
Why they might win it all: The bats can’t really be this bad
Christian Yelich is better than his .786 OPS. The same goes for Keston Hiura and his .707. The Brewers’ offensive struggles have been a constant throughout a frustrating 2020 season. But they’re capable of better. They’re not the only ones. If there’s one manager in the sport who can figure out where to get 27 outs, it’s Craig Counsell. He has at his disposal a frontman for the rotation, Brandon Woodruff. He also has two of the best relievers in baseball. Everyone knows Josh Hader. They’re about to be introduced to Devin Williams.
Why they might go home this week: This is what they really are
In a typical season, 60 games isn’t even the halfway mark, and perhaps the Brewers’ persistent offensive struggles wouldn’t be as alarming. But Yelich endured an awful start and the rest of the retooled group never really got in gear. Even Corbin Burnes’ surge into Cy Young Award contention came with a late-season injury that could sideline him for the first two rounds of the playoffs. Brett Anderson may miss time because of a blister. Lorenzo Cain opted out in August. Those are big losses for a team whose run prevention efforts must be elite because they’ve struggled so badly to produce them.
(Top photo: Harry How/Getty Images)
