Will Bitcoin drop after halving?
Mining stocks in 2023 and 2024
After the halving, the rate of issuance of new bitcoin as well as the rewards for successful bitcoin miners are cut in half. There can only be 21 million bitcoin, and fewer new tokens entering circulation could impact bitcoin prices. That's why, the halving is watched closely by miners and investors alike.
What bitcoin's halving may mean for miners. In 2024, the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 bitcoin, which is worth around $200,122 as of April 19 at the time of publication. However, since bitcoin mining typically requires expensive hardware and a vast amount of energy, it can be an expensive endeavor.
The halving will likely not cause a significant movement in price on the day it happens. Part of the economic impact of the halving has likely already occurred, with investors buying bitcoin in anticipation of the event, and the aftershocks of the halving will continue for months or years afterward, experts say.
Bitcoin Halving Is Not Bullish
Thielen, though, contended that those bull moves were largely a result of the positive macro environment, and not driven by the halving itself. The most recent halving in May 2020, for example, came alongside massive monetary and fiscal stimuli surrounding the Covid shutdowns.
Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x, says the halving is “associated with price increases due to reduced supply” but investors will have to wait for a price peak, which typically comes 500 days after a halving.
Mechanically, the halving itself shouldn't affect the price of bitcoin in the short term, but many investors are expecting big gains in the months ahead, based on the cryptocurrency's performance after previous halvings.
| Year | Minimum Price | Average Price |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $78,299.17 | $81,358.86 |
| 2025 | $115,285.47 | $119,353.06 |
| 2026 | $165,756.42 | $171,724.83 |
| 2027 | $240,935.90 | $249,522.05 |
It is estimated that the last new bitcoin will be mined in 2140. At this point, the cryptocurrency will become deflationary as coins can be 'lost' through user error – for example, by sending coins to an invalid address.
Investors considering the long term should see two halvings over the next five years. The next one will occur sometime in 2028 and reduce mining rewards to 1.5625 Bitcoin. Think of it like this: Bitcoin mining rewards will only be a quarter of what they are today within the next five years.
Is Bitcoin Halving good or bad?
That's not to say that a halving won't raise the price of Bitcoin. A halving may highlight the falling rate of issuance of Bitcoin, drawing more money to the sector as traders anticipate a change in sentiment in the market and expect a run-up in the crypto's price.
Historical ETH Price Analysis After Halving Events
Historical data showed Bitcoin's second halving event did not result in an immediate surge in ETH price. In fact, ETH prices fell to a low of $5.8 over the next six months, while BTC prices rose consistently during the same period.
The final halving is expected to occur in 2140, when the number of bitcoins circulating will reach the theoretical maximum supply of 21 million.
Miners will earn less bitcoin for their work
Because these are the people and companies that produce bitcoin, the halving will mean their work yields far less reward than before. Miners are competing with each other all over the world, all the time.
Halving does exactly what it sounds like — it cuts that fixed income in half. And when the mining reward falls, so does the number of new bitcoins entering the market. That means the supply of coins available to satisfy demand grows more slowly. Limited supply is one of bitcoin's key features.
The supply of bitcoins is replenished at a set rate of one block every ten minutes. The system design reduces the number of new bitcoins in each block by half every four years. There are only about 2 million bitcoins left. Experts predict that the last bitcoins will be mined by 2140.
Bitcoin halving is an event that takes place approximately every four years, which sees the number of bitcoins released as mining rewards decrease by 50%. Currently the Bitcoin reward is 6.25 BTC. However, after the fourth halving, the reward will fall to 3.125 BTC.
At the current rate, the next halving is expected to happen on or around 15 April 2024.
The bitcoin halving is already partially priced in, the report said. Deutsche Bank said it does not expect a large rally after the event. The geography of crypto miners is expected to shift following the halving to countries with lower energy costs, the bank said.
Bitcoin's price trajectory often responds dramatically to halving events. After the first halving on November 28th, 2012, when the mining reward dropped from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from $12 to $1,075 within a year, a stunning 8,858% increase.
How has Bitcoin halving affected price history?
The price of bitcoin has historically risen in the months after halving events as the creation of new bitcoins slows.
During 2025, they believe that the minimum price for Bitcoin is going to be just over $79,000, while Bitcoin could reach as high as $93,000 that year. The average trading price should be near $80,000.
Fidelity Predicts: $1B per 1 BTC by 2038 — 2040
Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, thinks the value of a single Bitcoin could reach $1 billion by the year 2038 — very close to our Bitcoin price prediction 2040 target date. Timmer's demand model is rooted in Metcalfe's Law.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
According to your price prediction input for Bitcoin, the value of BTC may increase by +5% and reach $ 85,550.24 by 2030.
As of March 2023, the top 1% of Bitcoin addresses hold over 90% of the total Bitcoin supply, according to Bitinfocharts.
