The first Saturday of the 2024 college football season (August 24) is over a month away, but it's not too soon to predict who will occupy the 12 spots in the first year of the expanded College Football Playoff.
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The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC conference champs will all secure a spot. The last automatic bid will go to the highest-ranked champion of the Group of Five conferences: the American (AAC), Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt.
As for the seven at-large bids, the expansion of both the SEC (which features newcomers Oklahoma and Texas) and Big Ten (now an 18-team league after adding Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA this offseason) means those conferences will likely send at least two or three teams to the CFP.
The good news for college football fans entering 2024 is that between the transfer portal dispersing talent around the country and the expanded 12-team playoff field, schools that previously had no chance to finish among the top four in the nation now (obviously) have a much greater chance at a trip to the CFP.
Case in point: DraftKings, to name one sportsbook, currently lists 39 (!!) teams at 10-to-1 or shorter odds to make the CFP. Here's the breakdown by conference of the teams that currently boast +1000 or shorter odds at DK:
- 10 Big Ten
- 9 SEC
- 8 Big 12
- 6 ACC
- 5 Group of Five
- 1 independent (Notre Dame)
Let's start by predicting the five teams that will reach the CFP as conference champions.
Note: The current DraftKings odds (as of July 11) to make the CFP for each of these predicted conference champs is in parentheses.
2024 CFP Predictions: Conference Champs
2024 SEC Champion Prediction: Georgia (-550)
Could an SEC team other than Georgia win the conference, again, in 2024?
The Bulldogs lost the conference title game to Alabama in 2023, but still went 12-1 and finished No. 4 after blowing out Florida State in the Orange Bowl.
Georgia's biggest threat appers to be Texas, which lost a ton of talent from last year's CFP squad to the 2024 NFL Draft (five Longhorns were selected in the first and second rounds).
Steve Sarkisian's team still returns plenty, though, including star QB Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns have just enough holes in their first year in a much tougher neighborhood to make Georgia the better bet to win the SEC.
2024 Big Ten Champion Prediction: Oregon (-300)
Most sportsbooks have both the Buckeyes and Ducks among their top four favorites to win the national championship. That makes it hard to see anyone outside of this duo winning the Big Ten. So, OSU or Big Ten debutant Oregon?
Ohio State probably boasts more talent top-to-bottom, but Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel appears to have a higher ceiling than Ohio State's Will Howard, which could put the Ducks over the top in a likely Big Ten Championship matchup.
2024 ACC Champion Prediction: Florida State (+140)
The ACC and the Big 12 are the most wide-open of the big four conferences, according to oddsmakers. Reigning champion Florida State has the shortest ACC title odds at DraftKings (+290), and the Seminoles are one of five teams currently listed by DK at 7-to-1 or shorter odds to win the league.
Veteran QB DJ Uiagalelei gives FSU the highest floor of the ACC's contenders, but due to heavy losses to the NFL Draft, this is not nearly the same team that went 13-0 a year ago. That leaves the door open to Clemson, Miami, Louisville and NCSU, but the Noles feel like the the best bet.
2024 Big 12 Champion Prediction: Utah (+220)
Utah might be coming off three straight Pac 12 titles if not for injuries to QB Cam Rising and several other key players that derailed the 2023 team (which still went 8-4 in the regular season).
Kansas State will be able to challenge the Utes, especially if highly-touted sophom*ore Avery Johnson can live up to the hype, but I give the narrow edge to a veteran Utah team led by a 25-year-old signal caller.
2024 Highest-Ranked Group of Five Champion Prediction: Liberty (+400)
DraftKings currently gives seven Group of Five teams decent odds (12-to-1 or shorter) to reach the CFP. Those include:
- Liberty (C-USA) +400
- Boise State (Mountain West) +400
- Memphis (AAC) +700
- Tulane (AAC) +1000
- Appalachian State (Sun Belt) +1000
- UTSA (AAC) +1200
- Texas State (Sun Belt) +1200
This is a close call, especially given that Memphis, Tulane and UTSA all look like legit contenders to win the American and finish in the top 25.
It's hard to go against a squad with a schedule as favorable as Liberty's, though. The Flames are -195 at FanDuel to win C-USA and their most imposing opponent is probably Appalachian State, making an undefeated season a real possibility.
2024 CFP Predictions: Seven At-Large Teams
With seven teams at shorter than even money, and 11 more between EVEN and +250, DraftKings gives 18 teams a realistic shot at a CFP berth.
In order of most to least likely to round out the 12-team CFP field (DK and FD odds to make the CFP as of July 11 in parentheses):
1. Texas (-235 at DK, -230 at FanDuel)
The Longhorns are a safe bet to win enough for a return to the CFP in their first year in the SEC. Having a backup QB like Arch Manning ready in case of injury to Ewers gives this team a crucial insurance policy.
2. Ohio State (-650 at DK, -650 at FD)
We're taking a slightly bold swing by taking Oregon to win the Big Ten ahead of the Buckeyes, but Ohio State still feels like a lock to get back in the CFP after missing out last year with an 11-1 regular season record.
3. Notre Dame (-165 at DK, -170 at FD)
It begins to get a bit more interesting after Texas and Ohio State, but Notre Dame shouldn't have too much trouble. The schedule features road games at Texas A&M (Aug. 31) and USC (Nov. 30), plus a home game vs. FSU. But as long as the Irish get to nine or 10 wins, they'll have no problem securing a CFP spot.
4. Penn State (-140 at DK, -145 at FD)
The Nittany Lions haven't been able to overtake Michigan or Ohio State in the Big Ten, but this is a consistent top-15 team that will avoid the Wolverines and the Ducks this year and host the Buckeyes. That's a recipe for coach James Franklin's first trip to the CFP.
5. Alabama (EVEN at DK, FD)
The Crimson Tide have to replace Nick Saban, but new coach Kalen DeBoer inherits a loaded roster that upset Georgia in the 2023 SEC Championship Game and took a dominant Michigan squad to overtime in a memorable CFP semifinal.
As long as DeBoer can help Jalen Milroe continue to improve under center, Alabama has a realistic chance to return to the CFP despite a tough schedule featuring trips to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
6. Ole Miss (-130 at DK, -125 at FD)
The fourth CFP spot comes down to a battle between Ole Miss and Tennessee. Coach Lane Kiffin's Rebels have a higher floor after going 11-2 a year ago and bringing back one of the top QBs in the country, Jaxson Dart. Every SEC team plays a tough schedule, but Ole Miss gets to avoid Texas, Alabama and Tennessee, and it faces Georgia at home.
The Volunteers, on the other hand, have Nico Iamaleava, a promising but inexperienced redshirt freshman, under center, plus a daunting schedule including trips to Oklahoma and Georgia and a home game against Alabama.
7. Kansas State (+250 at DK, +310 at FD)
Let's go with a longshot to take the final spot in the 2024 CFP. The case for Kansas State starts with speedy QB Avery Johnson, who takes over under center for a team that finished No. 18 in 2023. Crucially, the schedule also eases up dramatically from a year ago.
The Wildcats lost just four games last season, all by eight points or fewer. The close defeats included a 30-27 heartbreaker at No. 8 Missouri and a 33-30 overtime nailbiter to Texas in Austin.
This year, the two toughest road games are at Tulane on September 7 and at Iowa State on November 30, while K-State's toughest in-conference foes (Oklahoma State and Kansas) have to come to Manhattan.
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